Week Ahead

All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes next week, as well as the US jobs report due Friday, which will probably point to a further slowdown in the labor market recovery. Other key releases include US ISM PMI surveys and foreign trade; UK monetary indicators; Eurozone retail sales, industrial output, and inflation rate; China Caixin PMI surveys; Japan consumer confidence; Singapore Q1 GDP figures; and worldwide manufacturing and services PMI surveys.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@www.osheacc.com 1/2/2021 10:12:01 AM
In the US, investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps. The Federal Reserve held the target range for its federal funds rate at 0-0.25 percent during its December meeting, and signaled there would be no changes in interest rates until at least through 2023. 

Investor focus also turns to the December's jobs report, which will probably show a payroll increase of just 100 thousand, the smallest employment gain since the labor market recovery started back in May from a record 20.787 million loss in April. The unemployment rate is seen picking up to 6.8 percent, well above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, the ISM PMI surveys should signal a slowdown in both manufacturing and service growth rates during December. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, construction spending, factory orders, ADP employment change, and the final readings of Markit PMIs and wholesale inventories.

Other key data to watch for in America include Canada employment figures, trade balance, and PMI surveys from both Markit and Ivey Business School; Brazil trade balance, industrial output and Markit PMIs; and Mexico consumer and business morale, inflation data, and Markit Manufacturing PMI. The central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Across the Atlantic, final readings of Markit PMIs are expected to confirm a marginal expansion of Britain's private sector output, driven by another solid increase in manufacturing production while service sector activity stagnated at the end of 2020. Halifax house prices, alongside Bank of England’s monetary indicators and Markit Construction PMI are also awaited.

Elsewhere, the Eurozone, Germany and France will publish their final estimates of Markit PMIs while many other countries such as Spain and Italy will release flash readings. Also, labor market data will be published for the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Other key economic data include: Eurozone business survey, consumer and producer prices, and retail sales; Germany foreign trade, retail trade, industrial activity and factory orders, and inflation rate; Spain business and consumer morale; and France, Italy, Switzerland and Turkey inflation numbers.

In China, the Caixin will be publishing its manufacturing and services PMI surveys, with forecasts pointing to solid factory activity growth during December. In Japan, important releases include consumer sentiment, household spending, a preliminary estimate of coincident index, and the final readings of Jibun Bank PMIs.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Australia foreign trade, building permits, and final Markit PMIs; India flash trade balance data and Markit PMIs; South Korea Manufacturing PMI; Hong Kong retail trade; Singapore first-quarter GDP figures; Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines inflation rates.